The Impact of the War on Ukrainian Higher Education: Forecasting Student Migration Using an ARIMA Model
(Pages 94-105)Nataliya Stoyanets1,* Olena Kolotilina2 Alvina Oriekhova3 Oksana Sarkisova4 Andrii Pasko5, Anita Serbina6
1Doctor of economic sciences, professor of Management Department named after Professor L. Mykhailova, Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy National Agrarian University, Ukraine;
2PhD, Assistant of the Department of Economic Cybernetics, Sumy State University, Ukraine;
3Doctor of economic science, professor, Head of Management Department named after Professor L. Mykhailova, Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy National Agrarian University, Ukraine;
4Phd, Associate Professor of Pedagogy and Psychology Department, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine;
5PhD student, Sumy National Agrarian University, Ukraine;
6PhD student, Sumy National Agrarian University, Ukraine
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2025.23.10
Abstract:
In this study, we proposed scientific and methodological approach involves forecasting the number of mi grants using the ARIMA model, combining the following steps: formation of the research information base; identification of the structural form of the ARIMA model; model evaluation and verification of its adequacy; forecasting. For the empirical study, the determinant "total outbound internationally mobile tertiary students studying abroad, both sexes, Ukraine" for 2004-2024 was taken, according to UNESCO data. The results obtained demonstrated a stable upward trend in migration processes from the 2000s to 2019, with a significant increase in the period 2014 2018, triggered by the 2008 crisis and the escalation of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014. However, in 2019, a decline in the number of Ukrainian students abroad was observed, attributed to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a substantial increase in academic migration became evident. Forecast values indicate that the number of student youth migrants will reach 132,462 in 2025, 146,610 in 2026, 158,456 in 2027, 168,375 in 2028, and 176,681 in 2029. Forecasting migration flows can assist government agencies in developing effective migration policies aimed at attracting international students and planning higher education policies, including funding, infrastructure, and student support.
Keywords:
Higher education, student migration, war impact, forecasting, ARIMA model.
JEL Classification:
I20, J24, C53.
How to Cite:
Nataliya Stoyanets Olena Kolotilina Alvina Oriekhova Oksana Sarkisova Andrii Pasko Anita Serbina. The Impact of the War on Ukrainian Higher Education: Forecasting Student Migration Using an ARIMA Model. [ref]: vol.23.2025. available at: https://refpress.org/ref-vol23-a10
Licensee REF Press This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.