The Dovish and Hawkish in the Black Swan Phenomenon: Case in Indonesia

(Pages 1842-1848)

Novi Swandari Budiarso* and Winston Pontoh
Sam Ratulangi University, Accounting Department, Economics and Business Faculty.


Uncertain economic events tend to have an impact on investors' decisions in the capital market. Recently, global inflation has also influenced monetary policy in Indonesia, especially the decision to increase interest rates. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of interest rate on market returns in Indonesia over period 27 December 2021 to 31 March 2023. During 23 August 2022 to 31 March 2023 (or hawkish period), the findings show that, first, most of the sectors experienced insignificant decline in returns except the infrastructure sector. Second, rising interest rates tend to make most sectors more efficient except finance and the technology sectors. Third, estimated returns predict that maintaining a hawkish stance tends to lead to small increases in returns for most sectors except for a few sectors such as consumer non-cyclical, properties & real estate, and healthcare.


Dovish; hawkish; interest rate; market return; sector index.

JEL Classification:

G01; G11; G14; G18.

How to Cite:

Novi Swandari Budiarso and Winston Pontoh. The Dovish and Hawkish in the Black Swan Phenomenon: Case in Indonesia. [ref]: vol.21.2023. available at:

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