Abstract:

Given the peculiarities of the dominant structure of the economy and the available export potential, the most important exogenous factor of economic dynamics for Ukraine is the world oil and gas prices. The purpose of the study is to forecast the impact of the world price of oil and gas on the electricity industry of Ukraine. The article analyses the dependence of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy on the dynamics of world oil prices. Several hypotheses about the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy to fluctuations in oil prices have been put forward, as well as a system of simultaneous equations has been specified and evaluated, what makes it possible to test these hypotheses. Scenarios of the reaction of the Ukrainian economy to exogenous shocks associated with a sharp change in the level of oil prices are considered, and some measures are proposed to reduce the negative consequences of fluctuations in world oil prices for the Ukrainian economy. The results of the analysis show that the Ukrainian economy is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in world oil and gas prices. Sustainable development is impossible without the implementation of urgent measures for diversification and modernization, the transition from export-raw material to innovation-oriented model of economic development.

Keywords:

Dynamics of oil prices, Macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy, Systems of simultaneous equations.

How to Cite:

Oksana Kohut-Ferens. Forecasting the Influence of World Oil and Gas Prices on Ukraine’s Electric Power Industry. [ref]: vol.21.2023. available at: https://refpress.org/ref-vol21-a160/