Understanding Economic Processes Through the Lens of Econometric Methods
(Pages 180-189)Maryna Abramova1*, Olga Zaremba2, Svitlana Nuzhna3 and Svitlana Moroz3
1Senior Researcher at the Department of the Economic Building Analysis and Measures Development of the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.
2Associate Professor at the Department of Financial Analysis and Audit of the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine.
3Associate Professor at the Department of Information Systems and Technologies of the Dnipro State Agrarian and Economic University, Dnipro, Ukraine.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2022.20.21
Abstract:
In this study, the authors highlight the importance of studying the impact of export transactions on changes in gross domestic product as the main indicator of the state of the national economy. To substantiate the feasibility of using the method for estimating multiple dependence equations, the authors compare the capabilities of some econometric approaches, and indicate the feasibility of using each of them. The emphasis has been placed on the importance of examining the state of export-import transactions as an inseparable part of the country's balance of payments – the information obtained is an integral part of the system for understanding the dynamics of the constituent economic processes. To verify the interdependence of changes in economic phenomena, it is proposed to use the method of statistical equations of dependencies, which made it possible to model changes in the volume of export transactions and gross domestic product by 2025, using Ukraine as an example. By comparing the results obtained by the authors and official forecast data (on the example of some statistical data of Ukraine), certain recommendations are made regarding the possible improvement of the effectiveness of forecasting macroeconomic indicators of the state of the national economy. The results presented in this study can be used to increase the efficiency (improvement) of methodological apparatuses for forecasting economic processes in states with developed market economies.
Keywords:
Indicators of the State of the Economy, Correlation and Regression, Export-Import Transactions, Econometric Methods, Univariate and Multivariate Dependence.
JEL Codes:
D23, O10.
How to Cite:
Maryna Abramova, Olga Zaremba, Svitlana Nuzhna and Svitlana Moroz. Understanding Economic Processes Through the Lens of Econometric Methods. [ref]: vol.20.2022. available at: https://refpress.org/ref-vol20-a21/
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