Abstract:

Despite agriculture's crucial role in the economy, value chain disruptions hinder growth and food security. This study investigates the impact of agricultural value chain disruptions on food inflation in Nigeria from a risk management perspective. Specifically, it analyzes the effects of factors like weather changes, conflict, and financial costs on both value chain disruptions and food inflation, using a mixed-methods approach and secondary data from key sources (e.g., Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics), it employs quantitative techniques, such as Value at Risk and the Multinomial Endogenous Treatment Effects Model. The findings reveal that climatic change, conflict, disasters, and monetary policy significantly influence agricultural value chain disruptions and subsequent food inflation. Financial costs, in particular, were identified as a strong predictor of these disruptions. The study provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers, recommending targeted strategies such as enhancing financial accessibility, promoting sustainable practices, and improving infrastructure to mitigate risks, build agricultural resilience, and ensure Nigeria's food security and economic stability.

Keywords:

Agricultural value chain disruption, Food inflation, Financial costs, Multinomial endogenous treatment effects, Value at risk.

JEL Classification:

E31, Q10, Q13, Q18.

How to Cite:

Olabanji, Samuel Olufemi, Wasiu Akintunde Yusuf and Ebunoluwa Oluwaseun Oyegoke. Risk Management Perspective of the Impact of Agricultural Value Chain Disruption on Food Inflation in Nigeria. [ref]: vol.23.2025. available at: https://refpress.org/ref-vol23-a24